Validation in Flood Risk Modelling

Validation in Flood Risk Modelling

Chairs:
Karin de Bruijn (Deltares),
Laurens Bouwer (Deltares),
Daniela Molinari (Politecnico di Milano)

Validation is a key topic in flood risk analysis, as flood risk assessments are presently characterised by significant uncertainty. Since large investments are made based on flood risk estimates and maps, decision makers must have a sense of the accuracy of the risk estimation outcomes.

This session at Floodrisk 2016 will provide an opportunity to discuss the key challenges in flood hazard estimation and risk assessment, for fluvial, pluvial, coastal, and flash floods; to report on new results in flood risk model validation; to discuss with policy makers and private sector; and to set priorities for the research agenda on flood risk validation.

In this session, we will not only discuss the need and options for validation, but also main gaps and research needs, including:

  1. Collection, standardisation and sharing of high quality data for model validation (i.e. hazard, failure, and impact models);
  2. Identifying benchmarks for flood risk modelling and validation;
  3. Validating and testing impact models, including damage models;
  4. Exploring new methods including multiple explanatory variables, in order to reduce model uncertainty;
  5. Integration of results with expert opinion when data are scarce or lacking.

From the session we will identify topics and actions for a “priority” research agenda on flood risk model validation. This agenda will be published and distributed amongst key-stakeholders.

The session will include:

  • Introduction on flood risk model validation by Karin de Bruijn (Deltares)
  • Importance of and challenges on validation from the view of science, policy and the insurance industry: Keynote speakers are: Bruno Merz (GFZ Potsdam), Christabel Mitchell (Environment Agency), Guillermo Franco (Guy Carpenter).
  • Vote with your feet: In an interactive way participants are asked to take position on statements, and to discuss with each other.
  • Discussion and way forward

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Co-ordinators of
FLOODrisk 2016 include: 
Deltares Logo HR Wallingford Logo  Samui   Samui    Samui

Key Dates ...


  • Online abstract submission opens

  • Online abstract submission closes

  • Full paper submission opens

  • Notification of acceptance (w/e)

  • Early Bird Registration

  • Full paper submission closes

  • Final paper submission deadline

  • Standard Registration

  • Late Registration

News ...

Survey, Photos and Proceedings

Just over one month ago Lyon became our home for a week, as the Lyon Centre des Congrès hosted FLOODrisk 2016. Now we have all had time to settle back into our daily routines, we'd like to invite you to share your experiences, thoughts and suggestions, so we can make FLOODrisk 2020 even better!

Survey

Our online questionnaire consists of 17 questions, mainly multiple choice,

... Read more

FLOODrisk2016 - Evaluation Survey

One month ago Lyon became our home for a week, as the Lyon Centre des Congrès hosted FLOODrisk 2016. Now we have all had time to settle back into our daily routines, we'd like to invite you to share your experiences, thoughts and suggestions, so we can make FLOODrisk 2020 even better!

Survey

Our online questionnaire consists of 17 questions, mainly multiple choice, and s

... Read more